Christmas Around The Corner, Quiet Markets Expected

Monday, 23 December 2024, 09:00 – UK GDP (YoY) (Q3)

In November, the UK’s preliminary GDP reading for the third quarter of 2024 showed a 1.0% increase, surpassing market expectations of 0.1% and improving on the previous quarter’s 0.7% growth. This expansion was driven by various sectors, with the services sector—representing a major share of the UK economy—rising by 0.1%, and the construction sector posting a stronger growth of 0.8% during the same period. Looking ahead, the upcoming GDP release is expected to indicate modest growth or stagnation, with the growth rate likely to remain steady but without significant acceleration due to persistent structural challenges. While monthly performance may continue to be sluggish, year-over-year growth is anticipated to remain modest.

Monday, 23 December 2024, 17:00 – U.S CB Consumer Confidence (Dec)

The U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose to 111.7 in November 2024, up from 109.6 in October. This improvement reflects better consumer perceptions of current business and labor market conditions, as evidenced by a 4.8-point increase in the Present Situation Index, which reached 140.9. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which gauges short-term outlooks for income, business, and labor market conditions, inched up by 0.4 points to 92.3, staying above the recession-indicating threshold of 80. Based on current economic trends and steady consumer optimism, the Consumer Confidence Index is expected to continue its upward trend with a slight increase from November’s level. However, unexpected economic developments or policy shifts could alter this projection.

Tuesday, 24 December 2024, 15:30 – U.S Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov)

The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows a 0.2% increase in new orders for manufactured durable goods, a notable improvement from the 0.4% decline in September. This rise was mainly driven by a $0.4 billion (0.5%) increase in transportation equipment orders, which reached $97.1 billion, reversing two months of declines. However, orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a key measure of business investment, dropped by 0.2% in October, indicating potential caution among businesses regarding capital spending. While the uptick in durable goods orders is a positive sign, the decline in core capital goods orders highlights the ongoing pressure on the manufacturing sector amid global economic uncertainties. Given the current economic conditions, durable goods orders are expected to see only modest growth or possibly a slight decline, reflecting the challenges facing the sector.